Will Obama Win in 2012 Presidential Elections
Obama Approval Rating to Win in 2012
Could change the conventional wisdom on its head in 2012? Here's the conventional wisdom: the reelection of President Obama is sensitive to the weak economy and high unemployment. Here's what can happen: The economy is gradually improving, and even though unemployment remains high (above 8 percent), reads the political sense, it is clear that things are moving in the right direction. This allows Obama to say, as I do, that its policy of gradually repairing the economic disaster that he inherited from Republicans.
, For they say, Obama's rhetoric and anti-business policies do not have the leisure Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare") and the uncertainty of the new rules to avoid work, and Obama stopped to do with the explosion of public debt .
Don triumph of narrative can also decide the election. If Obama convinces the Americans came to recovery, he will win. If the Republicans in their policy of long-term stagnation of successful, they win. Although the debate is important for the economy, the actual implementation - for better or worse - to determine how many Americans feel. And that depends on the forces and events that the candidates had little or no control.
What are the prospects for 2012?
Many of forecasts of modest growth. Here are some figures from IHS Global Insight, a leading consulting firm. Economy grows 1.8 percent, which is almost the same as in 2011 (estimate: 1.7 percent). Wage employment will increase by about 145,000 a month are constantly increasing, it is good, but is unlikely to reduce unemployment. In fact, showing the normal growth of the workforce and the prospect that some workers discouraged job seekers, the unemployment rate (8.6 percent in November) can be an average of 8.7 percent, slightly less than 9 2011th percent run
This estimate shows laborious savings occur, would favor the Republicans. "Consumers are faced with the negative too much to spend for permission to continue the strong - weak labor market, high debt, house prices are still below prices, wage growth and lack of confidence in the ability of government to the Things have exceeded best met, "said IHS.
But the prognosis for a normal, maybe too dark. From the 2008 financial crisis, economic forecasts are consistently wrong. At this time last year, they were very optimistic, and now they can be very pessimistic. Many of the indicators above expectations. Weekly initial claims for unemployment, which reaches more than 600,000, less than 400,000 - is often associated with low unemployment and low. Residential construction rose 9.3 percent in November from October and 24.3 percent in November 2010.
Obama is the economy, two major positive potential.
First, there is a huge pent-up demand for homes and vehicles, as these two sectors, which collapsed in the recession. The sale of passenger cars and light trucks, which had fallen about $ 17000000 a year in 2004 and 2005, 10.4 million in 2009. In 2011, IHS estimates that sales reached 12.7 million first decline in residential construction was even lower, po about 2 million units per year in 2004 and 2005, about 600,000 in 2011
Secondly, consumer debt is falling rapidly, noted Timothy Taylor, editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, on his blog. Families repaid debts. Others were down, interest rates are still well below other loans. Families paid an average of 16.15 per cent of their income on loans, rent and lease in the third quarter 2011 data from the Federal Reserve. It was the lowest since 1993, and up and down 18.85 percent in the third quarter of 2007.
The result: more Americans were able to borrow for a home or a vehicle to relieve pent-up demand to buy. Home sales may have recovered already. In November, the new contracts reached their highest level in 19 months.
In contrast, in Europe and China, major risks. Europe, Italy and Spain are close 500.000.000.000 € loans are for 2012 must inform the Institute of International Finance. If they can not refinance - if the bond market does not renew the loans, the interest rate - the default, or should be saved. In any case, Europe is confronted with more rigor and a deep recession. This has hurt U.S. exports and profits of U.S. companies with international.
The threat of China's real estate crash "bubble", ie, if it occurred, leading to bankruptcies of developers, banks, defaults and a slowdown in economic growth would be. The impact would spread beyond China, since the construction of its fuel demand for cement, steel, copper and other commodities traded in world markets. Here again, the U.S. exports are harmed.
To paralyze the face of all the economic opportunities of choice is almost meaningless. This is a 2012 political map of the wild - the game - if one could prove crucial opportunity.
Have you ever squeeze a game where the toothpaste tube to listen, and then try to recover it again? In general, for children to play and there is some kind of prize or bonus issue. And that is usually a bonus or prize, because most people simply give up because it is very difficult to be disturbed.
Enter our beloved president: He clearly showed his contempt - or at least the total disregard and disrespect of - organized religion and the separation of church and state, as Thomas Jefferson said. Our third president, Thomas Jefferson, said that the current moves in one direction. That the State could not interfere or impose its will, to the church. But, as has been shown to be unpleasant for President Obama, do not seem concerned about these issues, but it will be easy to use unconstitutional, invasive approved health plan.
Only after a major push by religious groups decided that "commitment" of Obama with these groups and women's rights, support, because the mandate violated the mandatory access to birth control a woman's right to privacy. Actually, I'll bet this has nothing to do with women's rights, but that the administration is simply using that as an excuse to use your muscles again by Congress, to the monstrous "takes care" of our proverbial throats things. Fortunately, there are still people back in our country, where the backbone enough to bite when captured and beaten like a dog's ears.
This so-called compromise, the more "Uh, oh, how I get people on both sides of the question without Obamacare," proclaimed the president was as follows:
"This is a topic where people of good will on both sides of the debate through some very tough questions, to find a solution that works for all types. Now you know that we have." Obama said. "Religious freedom is protected and that the law requires that the free service does not discriminate against women."
In the process, staff offices, as the Catholic Church in connection with hospitals or relief agencies were still coverage of contraceptives for free, but he would come directly from your insurance company. The employer does not provide or pay for it. (1)
Let's break it down.
(1) "This is a topic where people are good will on both sides of the debate through some very tough questions, a solution that works for everyone is to classify. Today, you know, we did."
It was a little difficult ... well ... The President of the invasion of the territory is difficult to be considered a taboo!
(2) "Religious freedom is protected ...."
Hmmm correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was already protected by the Constitution of the United States! It was a slip of the tongue, which shows the feelings of the President of such a question? Or am I reading to her very deeply, and he was aware that her hand?
(3) "... and the law, which requires the free provision does not discriminate against women."
This countdown is now, he's not "free" at all, but "come directly from your insurance company." I do not know your conclusions, but when I checked the services of the last safe don 't free, someone always has to pay the bill. In particular, it can be expected at regular intervals, if Obamacare is fully effective after the date of the 2014th Hence the "free offer" leaves much to be desired.
Or in terms of discrimination against women, I injected my opinion, this is not what this debate at all, then you can do it. But even if you believe the discrimination suffered by women in the church decides, he says again, see paragraph 2
What President Obama was more than he can chew bitten, or in other words, even toothpaste tubes rolled and now desperately trying to fill it back in control, before many people. It is a question that is not obviously possible repurcussions before he thought of a decision, and now he is running for the White House like the proverbial headless and tried politics. The problem is that when he met the match to light the problem, it is likely that he made on the basis of their conscience on this issue.
Perhaps he would have done the preventive maintenance when it comes to their own decision.
